D&D 4E 4e - Forseeing the shape of thing to come?

[Kanegrundar]

And how much advance warning did we have for 3.5? Maybe 6 months, if that?

When WotC does do 4E (whenever that is), do not expect any major advance warning. The most I would expect is Dragon doing articles starting in January (possibly later, depending on what marketing to be done for it) of the year in which it gets released. I would also expect the release to be a GenCon release (tons of gamers in a single place, most wanting to get something before it hits the stores - perfect setup).

3.5 wasn't a totally new edition though. It didn't carry the weight of a brand new edition. 3E was so successful, I'm sure that WotC is going to go about it the same way with 4E. We knew about 3E for a long time. I doubt that they are going to try and just spring it on us without some sort of notice and definantly not without some serious playtesting. WotC gets raked over the coals for every tiny mistake they make. Do you honestly think that they will try to put out a new edition without playtesting the hell out it? Sure, editing mistakes will happen, but they will want a new edition, especially one that's sure to be unpopular to be as good of a product as they can put out to calm us down and get us into 4E.

Kane

 

[Rasyr]

3.5 wasn't a totally new edition though. It didn't carry the weight of a brand new edition. 3E was so successful, I'm sure that WotC is going to go about it the same way with 4E. We knew about 3E for a long time. I doubt that they are going to try and just spring it on us without some sort of notice and definantly not without some serious playtesting. WotC gets raked over the coals for every tiny mistake they make. Do you honestly think that they will try to put out a new edition without playtesting the hell out it? Sure, editing mistakes will happen, but they will want a new edition, especially one that's sure to be unpopular to be as good of a product as they can put out to calm us down and get us into 4E.

The thing about 3E and its release is that you cannot really compare it to anything else.

First of all, it was the first major D&D release after WotC had purchased TSR, IIRC. Secondly, they were also pimping the OGL as well, to get support from other companies for D&D. So for 3E, it made sense to do a lot of pre-release hype.

However, for 3.5, much less hype was used (mostly because I think that the decision to release it when they did was made right before the hype started, but that is just an opinion), but also because of the expected sales decline when it was announced.

When it comes to 4E, WotC can expect another sales decline once it is announced. Also, there is no saying that they are not already playtesting 4E as we speak. There are such things as NDAs, which would prevent the playtesters from even talking about what they are playtesting, let alone its specifics.

As for whether or not it will be unpopular, how do you know it will be unpopular? There are thousands of folks out there that will purchase it just because it says "D&D" on the cover. If 4E is more minis oriented like I, and several others that I know think (including Phil Reed who chimed in about it before I did even) that may alter the amount of playtesting required, depending on how much more minis oriented it is (i.e. is the miniatures handbook a first draft on 4E? or will it be somewhere inbetween?).

Please remember that I am only stating my opinions on the matter. If you disagree, that is quite alright. If you think that I am totally wrong, that is ok as well. However, you may rest assure that you won't be able to get me to change my mind (at least not until after GenCon 2006 ). If I actually am wrong, then fine, no real harm done, to me or anybody else. I have been wrong before and will likely be wrong again in the future. As I have said before, I hope for the best, but expect the worst.

 

[Kanegrundar]

Rasyr, I didn't mean to sound confrontational, so I meant no offense in my post.

You make some good points, but the whole reason that I feel 4E would be an unpopular move at this point is that 3/3.5 isn't like 2E was before. 2E was a much-maligned system, 3.5 isn't. I'd say that most people are happy with 3E, while 2E was going through a lot of problems the year or so before 3E. That's my opinion.

As for the NDA's, they aren't ironclad. I'm sure if 4E was being playtested, someone would have let the cat out of the bag, even if just hinting at it. Then again, maybe it is and they found enough people that aren't going to chance it by breaking their NDA's, but I would doubt it.

Like you said, I guess we'll find out after GENCON next year! I really go hope you're wrong, though. I'm not of the frame of mind to get into another edition, and I prefer playing instead of converting material...that's what happened in the early days of 3E for me and I forsee it for 4E as well...

Kane

 

[Rasyr]

I am reading the other thread you started, and I notice that a lot of responses are very close to some of the things I have said.

Will respond to that thread more fully - but please note, I have never really said that a 4E would or would not be popular. To me that is not part of the equation when I look at things and see (IMO) that 4E is on its way, and relatively soon.

 

[Kanegrundar]

I see what you're saying. The more I think about it, I really don't think it will be a whole new way of playing D&D. 3.5 is just too viable and has too healthy of a player base right now for that. However, I think it will be more along the lines of a 3.5-like revision. Clear up errata and offer up new ways of doing things, but still be consistent with 3.5 and 3.0 (to a lesser extent). Beyond that, I think WotC would be jumping the gun a bit too early.

Kane

 

[Ulrick]

OD&D(1974).

OD&D(1974) is the only true game. All the other editions are just poor imitations of the real thing.

If they would re-release it I would give it shot. But they haven't. And what little OD&D stuff, dating back to that time period, I've seen on ebay is really expensive. Though I did get Eldritch Wizardry and Greyhawk each for $25. But those probably don't count in your eyes, right?

 

[Jolly Giant]

OD&D(1974).

OD&D(1974) is the only true game. All the other editions are just poor imitations of the real thing.

Hmm... I believe I've read that before somewhere... I still like my 3.5, though!